New poll: Anthony Brown has commanding lead in gubernatorial primary

Monday, March 17, 2014
Adam Mendelson
(410) 353-9689
Michael Bocian
(202) 251-9348

New poll: Anthony Brown has commanding lead in gubernatorial primary

A new survey of Maryland voters conducted for the Maryland State Education Association (MSEA) shows that among likely primary voters, Anthony Brown holds a large lead with 48 percent of the vote, followed by Attorney General Doug Gansler with 19 percent, and Delegate Heather Mizeur with 9 percent.

Brown is closing in on having majority support, making him the clear frontrunner in a three-way race and putting him in an extremely strong position to secure the nomination.

The full survey analysis by GBA Strategies can be read at http://marylandeducators.org/sites/default/files/msea_-_maryland_gubernatorial_primary_survey_analysis.pdf.

Among the key findings:

Brown has a diverse coalition behind him. Brown has significant support from Marylanders under 50 years old (49 percent) as well as those over 50 (47 percent). Brown holds a 29 percent advantage over Gansler among both men and women respectively, and even greater advantages when compared to Mizeur. African Americans, who account for nearly 4 in 10 primary voters, favor Brown over Gansler by a wide 70 to 8 percent margin. Brown also leads his opponents among whites with 32 percent of the vote.

Brown’s advantage extends across the state. Geographically, his support is the highest in Baltimore and Prince George’s counties. But even in Montgomery County, which is Gansler’s and Mizeur’s home turf, Brown leads by 5 and 12 points, respectively.

GBA Strategies administered this survey of Maryland likely voters, including 426 Democrats likely to vote in the June primary. This survey was conducted March 3rd-6th, 2014 and reached respondents on both landline and cell phones. The primary election results carry a margin of error +/-4.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.  The final day of polling was conducted before any candidate began airing TV ads.

MSEA is the 71,000-member Maryland affiliate of the National Education Association (NEA), which represents over 3 million education employees across the country. MSEA is the state’s largest professional employee organization. Members include elementary and secondary teachers, education support professionals, certificated specialists, school administrators, retired educators, higher education faculty, and students preparing to become teachers. MSEA supports 39 local affiliated associations throughout Maryland.

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